‘Remain’ is getting weaker

The Twitter sentiment analysis indicates that ‘Remain’ is still on course to a victory but is getting weaker. In general the win side will most likely have a marginal victory, as ‘Remain/Leave’ vote is going to be very tight. The monitoring performed by the SSIX consortium shows a weakening pattern over the last 72h for ‘Remain’.

  • Moving Average (MA): 7 day, every minute – over the last 24h the trend is slightly down in the favour of ‘Leave’.

ma 7 days till 2306

Fig 1: Fast (yellow) and Slow (orange) Moving Averages Brexit opinion curves

From 16/06/2016, 09.00  to 23/06/2016, 09.00

  •  Volume of Tweets is stays stable with ‘Remain’ still having a majority

volume 7days till 2306

Fig 2: Volume of Tweets over 1 week (every hour) and the ratio ‘Remain’ (blue) / ‘Leave’ (orange)

From 16/06/2016, 09.00 to 23/06/2016, 09.00

What X-Scores tell us

The Brexit ‘Remain’ opinion is now within the clear weak positive range, showing very small volatility and a continuous slightly downward trend, showing that the ‘Leave’ opinion continues to gain a small momentum. At this point, however, the ‘Remain’ side is still the dominating preference of Twitter users.

  • Percentage share of Tweets: Remain side continues to go downwards: 57.8% ‘Remain’ as of 23/06 9am, compared to 59.9% ‘Remain’ as of 22/06 10am and 62% ‘Remain’ as of 21/06, 10am

% share of vote 7days till 2306.png

Fig 3: Division of ‘Leave’ (orange) /’Remain’ (blue) Tweets (every hour)

From 16/06/2016, 09.00  to 23/06/2016, 09.00