“Twitter sentiment analysis indicates ‘Remain’ win”

This is the conclusion of the Brexit monitoring from today (21 June) by the SSIX EU project consortium. All the X-scores show us that there is a stable trend with low volatility within the Twitter opinion towards staying in the EU. The X-scores provide us with the ability to understand sentiment/opinion behaviour in detail and to better quantify the possible opinion’s moves.

Percentage share of Tweets: 62% Remain as of 21/06, 10am

62 % Remain

Fig 1 Division of Leave (orange) /Remain (blue) Tweets (every hour)

From 14/06/2016, 12.00 to 21/06/2016, 10am

The monitoring performed shows us a side-ways/ horizontal ‘Remain’ trend as preference of Twitter users.

MA 7days till 2106

Fig 2 Fast (yellow) and Slow (orange) Moving Averages Brexit opinion curves

From 14/06/2016, 12.00 to 21/06/2016, 10am

In accordance with the above used X-scores we can conclude that the Brexit ‘Remain’ opinion is consistently within the weak to medium positive range, showing small volatility and so a stable behaviour for the coming days.

  • Moving averages give us a horizontal signal towards staying within the positive ‘Remain’ area

volume of tweets

Fig 3 Volume of Tweets over June 16 to 21 (144 hours) and ratio ‘Remain’ (blue) / ‘Leave’ (orange)

From 14/06/2016, 12.00 to 21/06/2016, 10am

The volume of tweets is increasing as we get closer to the voting day. A greater volume may provide more volatility within the opinions expressed over the next few days could be expected.